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If you were me what would have you done?
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Aramid

PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 5:59 pm    Author: Aramid    Post subject: DEAL!, SWITCH or KEEP? be honest difficult scenario
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Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:34 pm
Location: Manila,Philippines
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I was playing big jon's deal or no deal when i started picking case #2 as my personal case. I removed each undesirable cases one at a time and as I take down the corresponding amount in each opened case i notice some difficulty on where to locate the jackpot which is $11,700,000 in jackpot mode.

In the end i was left with my case #2 and case #12. I really left case #12 because i believe that it held the jackpot with no theory to prove that it held the jackpot. I will list down the amounts in each cases for you to have an idea how difficult it was opening cases in this game. It took me 1 hour and 25 minutes to maintain the jackpot till the end.

One case has $11,700,000 and the other has $300. I refused to deal at $6,953,000 which is higher than the mean and was offered the option to SWITCH or KEEP my case #2.

if you were me what have you done.

a)take the final offer
b)decline and Keep case #2
c)decline and switch case #2 for case #12


Cases and amounts inside
1- $5
2-??????
3-$50
4-$100
5-$750
6-$5,000,000
7-$250,000
8-$25
9-$100,000
10-$1,000
11-$2,500,000
12-???????
13-$500,000
14-$1,000,000
15-$1
16-$75
17-$200
18-$500
19-$50,000
20-$.12
21-$25,000
22-$5,000
23-$400
24-$10
25-$75,000
26-$10,000

I will post the screenshot the next day

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Last edited by Aramid on Sun Dec 30, 2007 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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jimmy7945

PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 3:53 pm    Author: jimmy7945    Post subject:

Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 4:44 pm
Warnings: 0
What was the game recap until the final 2 offer?


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Aramid

PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 4:15 pm    Author: Aramid    Post subject:
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Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:34 pm
Location: Manila,Philippines
Warnings: 0
Ok, the game proper

Chosen case: 2

ROUND 1

7: $250,000
10: $1,000
13: $500,000
1: $5
4: $100
26: $10,000

Banker's offer: $146,000
NO DEAL!

ROUND 2

19: $50,000
20: $.12
22: $5,000
3: $50
6: $5,000,000!

Banker's offer: $201,000
NO DEAL!

ROUND 3

5: $750
8: $25
23: $400
25: $75,000

Banker's offer: $489,000
NO DEAL!

ROUND 4

14: $1,000,000!
16: $75
21: $25,000

Banker's offer: $680,000
NO DEAL!

ROUND 5

11: $2,500,000
15: $1

Banker's offer: $1,422,000
NO DEAL!

ROUND 6

17: $200

Banker's offer: $2,512,000
NO DEAL!

ROUND 7

18: $500

Banker's offeR: $4,840,000
NO DEAL!

ROUND 8

9: $100,000!

Banker's offer: $5,100,000
NO DEAL!

ROUND 9

24: $10

Banker;s offer: $6,953,000

NO DEAL!

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jimmy7945

PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 5:02 pm    Author: jimmy7945    Post subject:

Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 4:44 pm
Warnings: 0
All of these offers are farly over the mean. The Benchmarks of these offers would be(assume that the top prize case still remaining):
On Jackpot Mode:
1st offer: 4.5% of the mean(on that game: $46,000)
2nd offer: 8%(on that game: $82,000)
3rd offer: 14%(on that game: $195,000)
4th offer: 17%(on that game: $304,000)
5th offer: 29%(on that game: $570,000)
6th offer: 39%(on that game: $920,000)
7th offer: 49%(on that game: $1,446,000)
8th offer: 62%(on that game: $2,418,000)
9th offer: 70%(on that game: $4,095,000)


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Lewis246

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:37 am    Author: Lewis246    Post subject:

Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 4:52 pm
Location: Devon
Warnings: 0
Deal the last offer, although to be honest, I'd have dealt long before then.


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Aramid

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 5:22 am    Author: Aramid    Post subject:
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Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:34 pm
Location: Manila,Philippines
Warnings: 0
I will post the screenshot later this day. :)

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Aramid

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:25 pm    Author: Aramid    Post subject:
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Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:34 pm
Location: Manila,Philippines
Warnings: 0
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In the end I turned down the final offer and switched my case #2 for case #12 and won the jackpot.

All voters of deal $6,953,000 and no deal then switch to case #12 made a great decision.

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