Haven't done one of these polls in close to 10 years now so thought it would be an interesting thought experiment/discussion.

Found it interesting that yesterday many people felt they couldn't risk Becca's £42,400 three box offer when from my statistical vantage point it was a no brainer of a No Deal. Worst case scenario at that point was a blue/75k finish, and that would lead to a very small drop in the offer from £42,400 given the ITV Banker has consistently and at this point pretty reliably been making offers near or above the average on volatile finishes.

So the question is, would you be willing to risk that offer knowing the ITV Banker's Offer trends, would you need reassurance either via Stephen saying the offer will be above 30k even if the 100k goes and/or asking the Banker to call back and confirm that, or would that amount simply be too much to turn down with a blue still on the board regardless of the likelihood of the final offer being close to the average?

Oh it was a no-brainer gamble, that's for sure. I think £42,400 is arguably borderline even in the C4 era - he'd have to drop his generosity quite a lot on the all-or-nothing finish for it to be EV- (on the proviso you do actually deal at 2-box), but realistically you'd be looking at maybe £17k/£23k/£87k? Certainly with the precedent they're setting on this series, that's well worth the gamble as that's more like £35k/£45k/£87k on the unlikely odds that he won't give you a 2-box AMO

I mean, should a guarantee be forthcoming that the offer would be £30,000 or above in any case, I would have no hesitation in playing on. Working on the assumption that the Banker would be content to provide that guarantee, that was the option I chose!
In the event that they weren't so accommodating...I'd decline regardless on ITV, but Deal on Channel 4.

With a halfway sensible banker, it would be a definite deal, because either £1/65k or £1/100k risked a massive decrease.

However, 30-odd shows in we know how this banker rolls, so it boils down to:

1/3 chance of 30-35k (£1 vs 75k)
1/3 chance of 45-55k (£1 vs 100k) [IMO the 58k proveout offer was inflated even by this banker's standards!]
1/3 chance of 87.5k (75k vs 100k)

So the EV with ITV banker is around 56-57k with 30k guaranteed - well worth a shot.

This flies out the window with a typical 2000s banker, who could offer anything and everything, but reasonable expectations might be 20k for blue/75k and 25k for blue/100k. This plummets the EV down to just over 44k with a 2/3 chance of a big drop. This is an easy deal.

If the ITV banker ever changes and you aren't guaranteed on or near the mean offers at 2-box, deal becomes the pragmatic option here.