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 [ 8 posts ] 

Easter Egg Dilemma 2 - What would you do?
Deal at £15,000 30%  30%  [ 4 ]
No deal £15,000 and open one egg 69%  69%  [ 9 ]
Total votes : 13
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lathebault

PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 10:41 pm    Author: lathebault    Post subject: Easter Egg Dilemma 2 - What would you do?

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Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
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Your board at 5 box...

1p
10p
£50
£100 £250,000

The banker offers you £15,000. No deal, and you must choose an egg, 2 bad and 1 Good eggs are involved. Choosing a bad egg means you must play on with a 3 box opening rule. A good egg means that you have the 1 box opening rule, but remember, there is only 1 good egg so the 1 box opening rule is at a 33% chance. Deal the £15,000, and you have the normal proveout, based on the egg scenario you would have ended up with.

Would you deal or no deal at £15,000?

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h2005

PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 10:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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4 blues and £250k with an offer of £15,000 is borderline deal / no deal for me anyway, although probably deal. But with a 1 in 3 chance of getting an offer after every box, I'd more likely no deal, and then hopefully deal for about £25,000 after taking out a blue.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 11:28 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Ouch. That is a brilliant finish. £15k on the four blues/£250k with a one-in-three chance of going to one-box-to-open? I'm severely tempted to play on, and h2005 may have nailed it, but with the specific blues including 1p and 10p, there's plenty of room for insult at two-box... or three- or four-box if that applies!!

That might just tip the balance to Deal for me. I think it would. Wouldn't be remotely stupid to play on though.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 11:38 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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I would no deal.

Hopefully get the good egg and find a blue and i'd expect the next offer to be about £26,000, another blue and for the offer to rise too about £37,000 - £40,000 and then if you were to get to two-box with the £250k and a blue (hopefully not the 1p as the Banker may play on that) with a final offer of £50k+


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rico7

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 12:08 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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This is tricky because the odds of you both choosing a bad egg and taking out the 250K within three boxes are 2 in 5 which suggests that a gamble might be worthwhile. I think I might still deal though as 15K is a decent offer, and I wouldn't want to have spent a fortnight in Bristol to go home with a low blue.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 12:19 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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No Deal. Offered £20,000 I may have thought about it.


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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 5:06 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

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Location: Darlington, NE England
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Another one that is far more interesting that the real scenarios they've been offered on. In all honesty I'd probably want to know which option I was going to get before deciding. In the absence of that, most likely deal, then look a complete idiot when i picked the good egg and miss the QM for 2 boxes!

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Lewis246

PostPosted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 1:13 am    Author: Lewis246    Post subject:

Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 4:52 pm
Location: Devon
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Deal. I think.

Edit: Actually, £15,000 may be low enough for me to go for it, so I'm leaning more towards no deal here.


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