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 [ 15 posts ] 

£12,500 and one egg worth £90,000... Deal or No Deal?
Deal! 47%  47%  [ 9 ]
No Deal! 52%  52%  [ 10 ]
Total votes : 19
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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 10:48 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Easter Egg Dilemma - What would you do?

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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You are left with one of the banker's power 5, and the £250,000. You're offered £12,500 walking money and one egg. Pick the egg and it's worth £90,000.What would you do?


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Lewis246

PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 10:54 am    Author: Lewis246    Post subject:

Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 4:52 pm
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Probably deal, but be absolutely gutted if I choose the wrong egg.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 11:12 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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Lewis246 wrote:
Probably deal, but be absolutely gutted if I choose the wrong egg.

Exact vice versa I think here


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 11:23 am    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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This is a tricky one... if I dealt and picked the wrong egg and walked away with £12,500 and had £250k in my box, I'd not be happy, as I'd no deal £12,500 on a blue vs £250k board!

On the other hand, if I no dealt and then won the blue, and it turned out the egg I would've chosen had the £90,000 bonus, I wouldn't be pleased either!!

However, with a 1 in 3 chance of getting a total of £102,500, I think it'd be a deal for me!!

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James1978

PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 12:29 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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No deal, as I'd ignore the egg and consider the offer in monetary terms alone - which would be a no-deal even for the most cautious people here! :)

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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Tom

PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 9:39 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject:

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
Location: Suffolk. That's as detailed as I'm going..
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Hmm, thats a tough one. Knowing me i'd probably deal but then be annoyed if i chose the wrong egg and had the biggie in my box.


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 10:41 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Fabulous scenario. Absolutely fabulous scenario.

Two lotteries. One gives a 50-50 shot at £250k or £100. One gives a two-in-three shot at £12,500 and a one-in-three shot at £102,500.

I'd look for £40k or so on that final two normally; I'd value the lottery at... less than that, I'd No Deal. But I really, really, really wouldn't want to.

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SrWilson

PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 10:56 pm    Author: SrWilson    Post subject:
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No deal to the offer and the stupid eggs

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 12:08 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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The cynic in me believes that Endemol are using this Eggs twist as a cost-effective device to save money, after all it has been a while since they've had the LTL, which raked in hundreds of thousands of pounds. So, every so often they engineer a twist which is designed to be to THEIR advantage, not the contestants (but sometimes this backfires - SEE: Chris B £76,000). There's even another twist coming up soon. :shock:

They can disguise that they are still giving out good offers through the eggs, but the odds are not in your favour most of the time. So if you deal, you are more likely going to end up with a worse-offer-than-usual sum. So, you can't really deal for sheer humiliation factor.
The maximum sum you can win is often at the lower end of the usual offer threshold IMO. Today, as I stated, £40k should have been the lowest offer, not the lottery-based offer, and players are being manipulated into thinking it's a good offer.

There has to be SOME set of rules in place, because otherwise the banker could say he'd offer £100k on 1p/ £250k ONLY if the player picks the good egg, and £20k if they picked a bad egg (or something). So, their offer would be "GOOD EGG=£100,000, BAD EGG=£20,000, Deal or No Deal?" (that would be kinda interesting, actually)

Anyway, the point I'm trying to take is that it just doesn't seem fair or is a significant advantage to the show's bank balance.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 12:20 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Don't blame you for thinking that - and they saved a good few days of LTL revenue with Jo Jo! - but it needs the players to work this out.

Done right this twist is superb. However, the only one it's working for right now is the Banker. Well except for today.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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NoDeal!

PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 1:33 am    Author: NoDeal!    Post subject:

Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:19 pm
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Guys, I think it is just 90k, not 102.5k. I said ND because I would rather have won the blue than 12.5k with the QM in my box. Even though I would deal 90k, it is a 67% chance of 12.5k, which is too much. I think 60k would be my tipping point.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:24 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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Tough but I think i'd no deal.

I would consider £12,500 as too low and the the 1 in 3 chance of getting an additional £90,000 too risky. So I would most probably no deal.


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h2005

PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:38 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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I've changed my mind on this one actually, having seen more of the egg thing. I'd be very tempted to no deal here...

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rico7

PostPosted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 12:00 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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The voting is totally split at the moment. I would deal because £12,500 is at least some insurance to gamble for £90,000 with.


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Unix eight

PostPosted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 2:31 pm    Author: Unix eight    Post subject:
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Well basically its a 1 in 3 chance of going away with £90 000
And a 1 in 2 chance of winning the £250 000


I know what odds I prefer..

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