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h2005

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:37 am    Author: h2005    Post subject: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...
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Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Warnings: 0
Here are some 5-box, 4-box and 3-box scenarios. Play all of these assuming you've got one box to open before the next offer and say what you'd do in a reply to this topic. I find these scenarios very fascinating as some obvious "deals" at 5-box often become more obvious "no deals" with 1 box to open and it creates much more interesting decisions.

5-box:

(Scenario 1)

1p
£50
£500
£750
£250,000

Banker's offer:

£10,000
- Banker has guaranteed an offer of £15,000 if you keep £250k in play to 4-box

----------------------------

(Scenario 2)

1p
£1,000
£3,000
£5,000
£75,000

Banker's offer:

£15,555


----------------------------

4-box:

(Scenario 3)

£5
£50
£3,000
£50,000

Banker's offer:

£6,000


----------------------------

(Scenario 4)

1p
10p
£1
£250,000

Banker's offer:

£15,000
- The banker has promised leaving £250k to 3-box will produce a £25,000 offer; leaving it to 2-box will generate a £75,000 offer

----------------------------

(Scenario 5)

£5
£3,000
£35,000
£75,000

Banker's offer:

£20,000


----------------------------

3-box:

(Scenario 6)

10p
£100,000
£250,000

Banker's offer:

£45,000


----------------------------

(Scenario 7)

10p
£10
£250,000

Banker's offer:

£25,000
- Banker guarantees a £75,000 offer if £250k is in play at 2-box

----------------------------

Scenario 8

£10
£100
£10,000

Banker's offer:

£2,222

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Ben Miller 176

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:40 am    Author: Ben Miller 176    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...

Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 9:38 pm
Warnings: 0
1 - No Deal
2 - Deal
3 - No Deal
4 - Not sure, probably Deal
5 - Deal
6 - Deal
7 - Deal
8 - No Deal


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h2005

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:41 am    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...
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Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Warnings: 0
1: No Deal
2: Possibly No Deal with 1 to open, deal normally
3: No Deal
4: Probably No Deal
5: Probably Deal
6: Probably No Deal, although I'd like to know what the 10p vs £100k and 10p vs £250k offers would be.
7: Deal
8: Probably Deal, I wouldn't be too bothered if I dealt and had £10k in my box, and £2,222 is a good offer for the board. May play on there though.

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Lewis246

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 12:00 pm    Author: Lewis246    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...

Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 4:52 pm
Location: Devon
Warnings: 0
1 - No deal, also no deal at 4 box anticipating a £26k offer if the QM stays. Would also no deal if it was 3 to open.

2 - Considering what we've seen with Chris B, easy deal.

3 - Unsure, probably no deal looking for a £10k offer at 3-box.

4 - No deal, possibly a no deal at 3-box if the 2-box offer will be that high.

5 - Unsure, probably deal as I'd stop at at least £27,500 if the £35k and £75k were at 3-box. Probably wouldn't see it as being worth the risk.

6 - Probably a no deal, as there should be a good enough getout if the £250,000 goes.

7 - Completely unsure.

8 - Definite deal, I wouldn't put it past the banker to stick even if a blue goes!


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greeny

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 12:18 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...

Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:14 pm
Location: Wirral
Warnings: 0
1 - Deal
2 - Deal
3 - Deal
4 - Deal
5 - No Deal
6 - No Deal
7 - Deal
8 - Deal


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:28 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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Scenario 1: Easy No Deal, and I'd turn down the £15k if I got it too.
Scenario 2: Deal. But that board's worth about four grand more for having four-box and three-box offers.

Scenario 3: Oof. That's the right offer there, and I'd probably have to take it.
Scenario 4: Instant No Deal to both the next two. It's now a 50% chance of £75,000, and I'm risking £15k for that. That said I'm not so certain I'd take £15k on a 1p/£75k... actually yes I am. No Deal.
Scenario 5: Hitting £5 will produce a £35k offer probably; £3k will leave it around £30k; £35k and we're looking at a small drop or stick, £75k and we're talking four figures. A somewhat reluctant Deal.

Scenario 6: For a one-in-three shot at presumably at least £145,000, and a guaranteed significant get-out, that's a very simple No Deal indeed.
Scenario 7: See also Scenario 4. This is actually easier because it's a two-in-three chance at tripling my money.
Scenario 8: No Deal I think - just worried about the two-box offer if I hit a blue. Though if we assume that one then it's a one-in-three shot at ten grand - £2,222 is marginal for me there.

Definitely the best set of hypothetical situations I've seen on this forum! :)

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:47 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
1. For what could happen, No Deal.
2. Probably deal, as it wouldn't seem worth going on.
3. Hmm... No Deal.
4. 25% followed by 33%. I'd be well up for it; No Deal.
5. Absolutely No Deal. Remove the 35 and make the 75 100, then I'm off.
6. No Deal, definitely.
7. It's 50/50. Three times the offer with a 1/3 chance of picking the £250k. I'd end up going on however.
8. No Deal, as it's small-ish money you're playing for. And with £10k/blue, I wouldn't be looking for a deal there anyway, except in extreme cases.

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cookie_monster

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:14 pm    Author: cookie_monster    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...
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Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 8:50 pm
Location: Chicken Tikka Masalalalalala
Warnings: 0
1. No Deal
2. No Deal
3. No Deal
4. Probably No Deal
5. Undecided. Higher chance of hitting a large red, and the offer would fall if I hit any one of them.
6. No Deal
7. Deal probably
8. Undecided.

The reason why I have so many NO DEALs is because I'll just keep thinking "It's only a box..."

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Unix eight

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:22 pm    Author: Unix eight    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...
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Joined: Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:40 pm
Location: Aberdeen, Sunny Scotland
Warnings: 0
1. No Deal
2. Deal, assuming missing the £75 000 in the next box would result in a small increase
3. No Deal
4. No Deal
5. No Deal, because of the guarantee of leaving at least one big number til the next box
6. No Deal, the increase in best best scenario against the decrease in worse case scenario is too much
7. No Deal
8. No Deal

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Craig

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:35 pm    Author: Craig    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...

Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:33 pm
Location: Aberdeen
Warnings: 0
1. No Deal
2. No Deal
3. No Deal
4. No Deal
5. No Deal
6. No Deal
7. Deal
8. No Deal


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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:01 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
Warnings: 0
1. No Deal - I would no deal the £10,000 followed by £15,000 and dependent on what the offer would be I may deal at 3-box (well only if £250,000 was still in play).

2. No Deal

3. No Deal

4. No Deal - I would no deal at £15,000 and no doubt at £25,000 as well. Just because I would be so tempted knowing that one more box to pick would generate a massive offer.

5. No Deal

6. No Deal - If I was left with the dream finish I would no deal the final offer. If I was left with 10p vs £100k/£250k I would deal dependent on the offer.

7. No Deal - Followed by a deal if I got offered £75,000.

8. No Deal

So it seems I would no deal everything. I think it's the fact that it's only one box to open that would tempt me just to go one more.


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:55 am    Author: daniel4389    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:36 pm
Warnings: 0
1. Errr I'd either Deal the £10k or No Deal both offers...I wouldn't take £15k if I'd turned down £10k. But I'm not sure whether or not I'd take the £10k in the first place. :?
2. No Deal I think.
3. No Deal.
4. Hmm No Deal but then Deal £25k I think. Seems like a lot more than £15k to me.
5. Probably No Deal, with a view to a definite Deal if one of the big ones goes.
6. No Deal, again with a definite Deal if a big one goes (I'd be expecting about £25k for the blue/£100k final two.)
7. Deal.
8. Probably Deal.

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daniel123

PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:04 am    Author: daniel123    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...
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User avatar

Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:59 am
Location: Here
Warnings: 0
1. No Deal
2. No Deal
3. No Deal
4. No Deal
5. No Deal
6. No Deal
7. No Deal
8. No Deal

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Tom

PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:54 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
Location: Suffolk. That's as detailed as I'm going..
Warnings: 0
1. No Deal
2. Deal
3. No Deal
4. Deal
5. No Deal
6. No Deal
7. Deal
8. No Deal


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James1978

PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:06 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
Warnings: 0
I'd deal 2, be unsure about 7 and probably no-deal all the rest.

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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Dhale750

PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:47 pm    Author: Dhale750    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...

Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2008 5:07 pm
Warnings: 0
They are all pretty obvious no deals for me.


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alexseth

PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:58 pm    Author: alexseth    Post subject: Re: Some "offer after every box" scenarios...
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2007 7:46 pm
Warnings: 0
All no deals, except for Scenario 2, which is a probable, but not certain, no deal for me.

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