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11 box what is the minimum you would you deal at?
£5,000 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
£7,500 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
£10,000 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
£12,500 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
£15,000 4%  4%  [ 1 ]
£17,500 18%  18%  [ 4 ]
£20,000 18%  18%  [ 4 ]
£23,000 9%  9%  [ 2 ]
£25,000 9%  9%  [ 2 ]
£26,000 9%  9%  [ 2 ]
£30,000 13%  13%  [ 3 ]
£40,000 13%  13%  [ 3 ]
£50,000 or more 4%  4%  [ 1 ]
Nothing below £75,000 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 22
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rico7

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:31 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: 11 box what would YOU do?
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If you were faced with Caz's 11 box today - £75,000 £100,000 £250,000 but no other amount
larger than £3,000 what figure would be the minimum at which you would deal?


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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:47 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?
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I think I'd look for about £20k.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:12 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?
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Average is just over £30k and with only a 34% chance of keeping all 3 in play, anything over £15k would probably be a deal (given that I said yesterday that it would have probably taken around £12.5k for me to deal on a £250k/£75k/peanuts 8 box)

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:16 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?
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Simon F wrote:
Average is just over £30k

Isn't it nearer £40k?! Or is my maths way off...?

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:20 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?
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h2005 wrote:
Simon F wrote:
Average is just over £30k

Isn't it nearer £40k?! Or is my maths way off...?


For some reason, I had 14 box in my head. Yep, the average is close to £39k depending on the oranges/blues.

My other reasoning still stands.

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crazyeddie

PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 12:48 am    Author: crazyeddie    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?
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It depends on the strength of the lower amounts, and how well the Banker is playing recent games at the time.

If he was playing well, I would consider dealing £15,000, however it might take more to be certain. Best to be unpredictable where possible.

Of course, at this stage, I'm not sure the Banker would make an offer that could reasonably be dealt. For entertainment value, he would probably wait to a later stage before making a dealable offer.

Reasoning for above in the spoiler. Read after you've voted if you're honest!

Looking at the EV, if you were to deal every potential offer predicted, the EV at 5-box is ~£15,500, and the EV at 2-box ~£20,500. This discounts the Banker potentially making better offers than expected, or making too low offers that would be declined, which would push the EV up.

Whether the risk of losing £15,000 to gain more is worth it, depends on how you are perceived by the Banker, and your tolerance to risk on an unstable board. An 8-3 split on this board is very safe Banker-wise, if he's playing well.


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Tom

PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:09 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?

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Between £20-25,000. I voted £25,000. Honest.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:37 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?
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High-volatility board with the mean just under £40k? £25k makes certain, £20k is a decision.

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James1978

PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 8:42 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?

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I voted for "new faithful", as I call it, £17,500 - for some reason it sounds so much better than £15,000 and not much difference to £20k (well to me anyway!) :)

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DanS

PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 10:24 pm    Author: DanS    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?
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I voted £26,000. Despite the no-backupness of it all, the op 3 still in play is such an opportunity. I wouldn't want to be bought cheaply with those 3 still in place.


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cool-luke-18

PostPosted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 12:08 am    Author: cool-luke-18    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?

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It would have to be about £40,000 before I would deal. I would always no deal an offer if there were at least 2 higher amounts than the offer unless it was around the average.


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CrazyChair

PostPosted: Mon Nov 16, 2009 1:00 am    Author: CrazyChair    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?

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I voted £17,500, as that is the minimum amount that would get me thinking about dealing in that situation. Anything over £25k, and I'm off! If I was the banker, I'd offer £22,500. Players would be after a bit more (£25k or so), but it's a lot of money to risk.


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matthew17

PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2009 7:08 pm    Author: matthew17    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?
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probably about £30k, anything below i would risk it

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Old Faithful

PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2009 1:09 am    Author: Old Faithful    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?
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Old Faithful for me! :D

Nothing less than 26k though.


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Brick

PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:34 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 11 box what would YOU do?
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I voted £17,500 as that's the minimum I'd consider, but I'd be a lot more likely to deal £20,000 or more.

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