This was an idea I had as a negotiation strategy for just the situation Roop had yesterday - a blue/big red finish, and an offer too low for me to justify taking mathematically but too high for me to feel that I should take a 50% disaster chance as a given.

Ask for a drastically higher offer, maybe about two-thirds of the mean... conditional on risking the lot on Box 23.

That means that the EV is lower than the mean (so it's a good deal for the Banker relative to taking the box), and the disaster chance halves from 40% to 20%. By accepting that 20% chance, though, the player is seen to be willing to accept the prospect of losing the lot, making the Banker less likely to believe he is simply being led into offering more money when the initial offer would be dealt anyway.

Let's say I asked for £80k on Roop's finish. Box 23 outcomes are £160k, £90k, £80k, £40k, El Zippo. I think I prefer that to both £46k and the £500/£250k coin flip with a 20% chance of turning the £500 to £10.5k if the coin flip goes wrong. But what about you?

Vote in the poll, comment with your reasoning!

I think I'd probably Deal the £80,000, as then I have a 80% chance of leaving with a life-changing sum of money and a 20% chance of claiming the title of the show's biggest dealer ever, which with 2 males having won the jackpot is just as good as winning it.

Statistically, I know I should go for the £80k option but I don't think I could risk the 20% chance of losing £80k so I'd stick with what I would have done yesterday and dealt the £46k.

Yes, I'd be gone at £46,000 myself. For me, in my position, it's a stonewall decision. Sorry, '06 Dan. I really am.

Same for me, so deal £46k.

Hmm... Of course it depends what the banker infers from this negotiation; he'd figure most stats-minded players would feel obliged to go for it at £46k from the mathematical point of view, BUT by the very nature of suggesting the offer, you're implying concerns over utility...

Ok. So, if he agrees to the negotiation, he has a 80% chance of paying out more than £40k, and on average he pays out £74k (the concept of losing £80k isn't quite right, in my mind, because the clause of the negotiation means you never have it as such; In a way, you have £74k, but it's probably more 'important' to consider in percentage terms; there's an 80% chance you have £40k or more, a 20% chance you don't!)

If he declines the negotiation, and accepts you will take the risk, obviously a 50% chance of paying out more than £40k, but VASTLY more... Hmm, an interesting one; odds of scenario versus liability for the Banker. I would view £46k down to £10,500 as still a disaster, I think...

I'd rather take the £80k option of course, but I suspect the banker would be more likely to retort, "The offer is now £60k, and you can do what you like with it!" I guess that's the very essence of negotation: A compromise!

+1

That's why if I ever negotiated, it would be for double the update that I would need on the board, as on past experience the Banker very commonly meets players halfway when they negotiate.

No Deal to both.

I think I'd rather have a £70k offer with the condition that I can't take box 23 (which I wouldn't anyway) than an £80k offer with the condition I have to open it.

That said, as far as I know there's nothing stating that whatever you say during your show is legally (or lawfully) binding. To that end, I'd go for the £80,000 offer and tell them I'm going to open box 23, before turning down box 23 and leaving with £80,000. Unless the 'play with honesty' thing is, in fact, legally (and lawfully) binding, of course.

Noel probably would not ask the Box 23 question if you did Deal that conditional offer.

I'm no expert but I imagine there's a clause that says they can do whatever the hell they like and are under no obligation to give you any money if they so choose.

If you tried to pull a stunt like that at best they'd re-record it (whilst still making you open box 23 as agreed) or at worst tell you to f*ck off and void your game.

Yes, nobody likes a smart-arse.

There are two scenarios that would cause me to deal £46,000
The regret of going home with £500 or nothing and having to explain to my wife and children why I turned my back on £46,000. Enough said!