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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:49 am    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject: DoND USA: February 7, 2008 ***SPOILER WARNING!***

Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 9:09 pm
Location: Eternal Freedom
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DoND USA is taking a break from the action of the Million-Dollar Mission to bring us another Winner Take All episode. You may recall that earlier this season, there was another such episode in which three people played the game rather poorly, and the biggest winner took home the combined total of the three games, $60,001. Tonight, the number of players has been reduced to two, but the same format remains. The contestant who wins the most money will take home the combined amount from the two games, while the other player will leave with nothing (a very unfair format, if you ask me). With that in mind, let the recap begin.

First Contestant: Jay Hughes
Chosen Case: 20

Round 1 - 6 to open
Briefcases 2 ($25), 19 ($750), 25 ($10,000), 17 ($75,000), 22 ($750,000), and 9 ($200,000) eliminated. Banker offers $40,000; NO DEAL.

Round 2 - 5 to open
Briefcases 14 ($1,000), 10 ($100), 24 ($100,000), 4 ($5), and 7 ($300,000) eliminated. Banker offers $61,000; NO DEAL.

Round 3 - 4 to open
Briefcases 12 ($400), 8 ($200), 11 ($400,000), and 23 ($50) eliminated. Banker offers $97,000; NO DEAL.

Round 4 - 3 to open
Briefcases 21 ($.01), 1 ($25,000), and 26 ($5,000) eliminated. Banker offers $128,000; NO DEAL.

Round 5 - 2 to open
Briefcases 6 ($1,000,000) and 5 ($500) eliminated. Banker offers $75,000; NO DEAL.

Round 6 - 1 to open
Briefcase 16 ($50,000) eliminated. Banker offers $88,000; NO DEAL.

Round 7 - 1 to open
Briefcase 18 ($1) eliminated. Banker offers $117,000; DEAL.

Final Winnings: $117,000

Proveouts
Contestant’s briefcase opened; briefcase contains $75.
Unopened Briefcases: 3 ($10), 13 ($300), 15 ($500,000).

Result: OPW (Will the stats experts pelase confirm this for me?)

So far, Jay is in the lead with an impressive total of $117,000. Already, we have a massive improvement over the first Winner Take All episode. But will that be enough to win it all? We'll find out right after our next game...

Second Contestant: Kristine Lemieux
Chosen Case: 13

Round 1 - 6 to open
Briefcases 23 ($5), 17 ($500,000), 2 ($500), 22 ($.01), 11 ($50), and 10 ($10) eliminated. Banker offers $65,000; NO DEAL.

Round 2 - 5 to open
Briefcases 6 ($5,000), 25 ($100,000), 8 ($50,000), 19 ($300), and 20 ($750) eliminated. Banker offers $123,000; NO DEAL.

Round 3 - 4 to open
Briefcases 3 ($75), 26 ($1,000,000), 9 ($75,000), and 14 ($750,000) eliminated. Banker offers $58,000; NO DEAL.

Round 4 - 3 to open
Briefcases 21 ($200), 1 ($400,000), and 4 ($1) eliminated. Banker offers $51,000; NO DEAL.

Round 5 - 2 to open
Briefcases 7 ($100) and 24 ($25,000) eliminated. Banker offers $71,000; NO DEAL.

Round 6 - 1 to open
Briefcase 16 ($10,000) eliminated. Banker offers $94,000; NO DEAL.

Round 7 - 1 to open
Briefcase 18 ($25) eliminated. Banker offers $121,000; DEAL.

Final Winnings: $121,000

Proveouts
Contestant’s briefcase opened; briefcase contains $200,000.
Unopened Briefcases: 5 ($1,000), 15 ($400), 12 ($300,000).

Result: TBW (Again, will the stats experts please confirm this for me?)

Final Totals:
Jay: $117,000
Kristine: $121,000

Winner: Kristine, by a mere $4,000. She takes home the combined amount from both games, $238,000.

Mark's Commentary: I haven't much to say this time around, except that both contetants played a heck of a lot better then the three contestants on the last Winner Take All episode. However, I will add this. I believe that the current Winner Take All format should be changed. In my proposed new format, the contestant with the highest winnings takes home the combined amount from all of the game played. The other player(s) depart with whatever they won, as no one should have to leave emptyhanded.

And now, as usual, I turn it over to you guys. Comment away.
Oh yeah, and before I forget, the Million-Dollar Purgatory, er, Mission continues on Monday with a whopping 11 million-dollar cases. When will the madness end?! Soon, I hope, because February is sweeps period for all of the major North American networks (NBC, CBS, ABC and FOX). So that could mean that we might see a millionaire very soon. Keep your fingers and toes crossed, folks...

Once again, all recap information is courtesy of Jordan's DoND USA recaps site @ http://heelsrule1988.tripod.com/dealornodeal/index.htm .

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I have berated my last contestant and have nothing else to say. Roll credits. Fade to black. | Dr. Hindsight | April 18, 2006 - December 7, 2023


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AArnett

PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:15 am    Author: AArnett    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:51 am
Warnings: 0
Now, back to WTA. In all obviousness, the Target Strategy has to rule here. So, wins in the $150K-$200K Range are likely, even if winning such amounts has to come from early deals on unsafe boards. If they want big case wins: $200K case wins are clearly far more likely, but $1M case wins are far less likely (I mean, likely risk $400K+ PLUS what the other people won to go for the $1M? That'd be even more over-pushy than doing that in a regular game!)

ITA: The loser (The $117K) was a TPW (Turned down what would've been enogugh to win at 8-case) and the winner $121K was an OBW (Had $200K in her case). Actually, she could've won more easily just by dealing at the SECOND offer! (Will a 15-case second offer deal ever happen on the US DOND?)

I think this is the last season of US Primetime DOND. :( The gimmicks just seem to be more desperate, and there've been a lot of "Shark Jump" moments this season.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:12 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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First one is indeed a TPW and the second an OBW, although the skipping of the proveout meant it's impossible to say for sure with the first; if the $500k had stayed to the final two that would have tipped it into TBW territory as the final offer would have exceeded $234,000.

I might have gone one more in each game. I don't think I'd be that convinced $121k or $117k would be a winning total. Although I might have done... and the generosity on a one-box game would have meant the $117k would be an instant Deal normally. But here, the gamble is entirely unclear - are you risking (up to $236k) for an extra $60k, or are you really risking nothing to get well over a quarter-million? Turned out the first player was doing the latter, but obviously was in no place to know that.

I agree with AArnett, this format practically demands targetist play.

Will there be a 15-case Deal? I've said this about the UK show and I'm more sure about it for the US show; yes, but it'll be unaired.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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lathebault

PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:00 pm    Author: lathebault    Post subject:

Joined: Sun Jan 20, 2008 4:05 pm
Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
Warnings: 0
The second player blew the $200,000 case for less which is an outright banker win because the banker has gained money for sure.

I don't like all this proveout skipping as it makes the game inconclusive.

_________________
The ace gambler knows when not to fold.


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