KP's Contestant Challenge

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

James has been doing it, Woko has been doing it, and here I go with a twist on it - playing all the old games, with the same players and the same box selection, with (obviously) different results.

I'm using another simulation - I won't provide the link in case that causes it to be removed - that allows for the relative offer generosity and variance to be adjusted very easily, and my intention is to change this every so often to reflect the changes in Banker strategy... so the offers are more comparable with what the players would really have received in different situations. The timing of the contestants' Deal is at my discretion based upon my perception of their risk-aversion.

The other twist is you'll get full reports on each game. This may mean we don't race through them though.

Here we go then...

Offer benchmarks relative to the mean - 10%/25%/35%/50%/75%/100%. Offers will vary within 5% of the benchmark and will be rounded to the nearest £100 except when below £1,000.
Example: if the mean at the final five is £10,000 the benchmark would be £7,500, but the actual offer could vary by 5% of £7,500 (£375). Assuming rounding to the nearest £100, the true offer would be between £7,100 and £7,900.

Code:

GAME 1 - LYNN
Lynn has Box 15.

ROUND 1
19 - £250,000 | 5 - £50 | 17 - £1,000 | 11 - £75,000 | 8 - £20,000
OFFER: £1,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
3 - £35,000 | 6 - 10p | 21 - £5
OFFER: £3,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
14 - £15,000 | 12 - £1 | 2 - £10,000
OFFER: £5,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
16 - £100 | 18 - 1p | 4 - £100,000
OFFER: £3,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
10 - £500 | 9 - £3,000 | 13 - £5,000
OFFER: £7,300 | DEAL

ROUND 6 (PROVEOUT)
1 - £750 | 22 - £10 | 20 - £50,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £122
Box 15 had 50p (Box 7 had £250)

Summary stats:
Box had 50p | Peak offer £7,300 | Prize won £7,300 | OPW

Summary of game:
Not dissimilar to the real one with a super-destructive start that was salvaged into a nice OPW. Why didn't I gamble in a one-box game as Lynn did in reality? Because she was offered £4,300 with £35,000 and nothing, significantly less generous than £7,300 with £50,000 and nothing, and I have a feeling she wasn't THAT reckless really.

Code:

GAME 2 - MARK
Mark has Box 6.

ROUND 1
12 - 50p | 2 - 10p | 9 - £5,000 | 5 - £100,000 | 8 - £1,000 |
OFFER: £2,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
16 - £50,000 | 15 - £10 | 14 - £750
OFFER: £7,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
1 - £20,000 | 19 - £5 | 20 - £250 
OFFER: £12,900 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
10 - £15,000 | 3 - £50 | 11 - 1p 
OFFER: £22,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
17 - £1 | 7 - £100 | 4 - £35,000 
OFFER: £51,400 | DEAL

ROUND 6
22 - £10,000 | 13 - £500 | 21 - £250,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £38,400
Box 6 had £75,000 (Box 8 had £3,000)

Summary stats:
Box had £75,000 | Peak offer £51,400 | Prize won £51,400 | OBW

Summary of game:
So much stronger than his real game I really wasn't sure what to do, especially as his real game was so long ago. Would he have been sucked in by the board, or stunned by the big money offered just to stop a game? I figured he was a bit of a gambler but would have been startled by that fifth offer coming in above £50,000.

Extraneous note - I changed the final offer generosity to 95% of the mean at this point, partly to remove the prospect of an AMO at the final two but also because both the final two offers seemed too high even for November 2005.

Code:

GAME 3 - ANITA
Anita has Box 21.

ROUND 1
11 - £3,000 | 15 - £250 | 1 - £75,000 | 2 - £50 | 17 - £1,000 |
OFFER: £2,900 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
4 - £10 | 10 - £5,000 | 20 - £35,000
OFFER: £7,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
16 - £15,000 | 12 - £5 | 19 - £500 
OFFER: £13,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
8 - £50,000 | 9 - 1p | 18 - 10p 
OFFER: £23,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
6 - £1 | 14 - £750 | 5 - £250,000 
OFFER: £19,000 | NO DEAL

ROUND 6
7 - £20,000 | 22 - 50p | 13 - £100,000
OFFER: £4,900 | DEAL
Box 21 had £100 (Box 3 had £10,000)

Summary stats:
Box had £100 | Peak offer £23,500 | Prize won £4,900 | TBW (79-21)

Summary of game:
Also went similarly to the real game, the fourth offer being very similar on a very similar board. Losing the quarter-million proved crushing - while the offer was quite good, and I'd have taken it, I felt Anita was the type to chase the big money. However, I felt not even she would risk the final gamble - and even if she would, I don't think I could have faced doing it...

Code:

GAME 4 - RACHEL
Rachel has Box 10.

ROUND 1
11 - £20,000 | 2 - £100,000 | 21 - £1,000 | 4 - £750 | 3 - £5,000 |
OFFER: £2,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
19 - £1 | 14 - £35,000 | 22 - £10,000
OFFER: £7,100 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
5 - 50p | 12 - £15,000 | 8 - £75,000
OFFER: £9,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
1 - £500 | 16 - £5 | 9 - 10p 
OFFER: £19,200 | DEAL

ROUND 5
15 - £250,000 | 17 - £100 | 18 - £250
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £8,300

ROUND 6
7 - £50 | 6 - £3,000 | 20 - £10
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £23,000
Box 10 had 1p (Box 13 had £50,000)

Summary stats:
Box had 1p | Peak offer £23,000 | Prize won £19,200 | TPW (83-17)

Summary of game:
I knew that Rachel would be quite cautious - she got six pretty useless offers and contrived to take one of them, albeit for £25,000, so I knew that the fourth offer of nearly £20,000 on a dangerous board would be an instant Deal for her. An inflated proveout offer denies her the OPW, but you can be your life she'd have taken the £8,300 anyway. And she sold the penny as well - what a great deal.

Code:

GAME 5 - HALEEM
Haleem has Box 17.

ROUND 1
2 - £250,000 | 22 - £35,000 | 3 - 50p | 16 - 10p | 1 - £3,000
OFFER: £1,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
5 - £50,000 | 6 - £75,000 | 8 - £15,000
OFFER: £2,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
7 - £500 | 4 - £20,000 | 9 - £10
OFFER: £3,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
11 - £5,000 | 12 - £10,000 | 13 - £250 
OFFER: £6,300 | DEAL

ROUND 5
14 - £100,000 | 15 - £750 | 21 - £100
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £151

ROUND 6
20 - £1 | 18 - £5 | 19 - £1,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £25
Box 17 had £50 (Box 10 had 1p)

Summary stats:
Box had £50 | Peak offer £6,300 | Prize won £6,300 | OPW

Summary of game:
An absolute train wreck game but the relatively generous fourth offer proved the perfect time to go - and I nearly had him become the first third-offer walker, he seemed somewhat cautious to me and I felt he might be spooked by the one-box game. Turned out to be the perfect deal on a board that had disaster written all over it at almost every point.

Code:

GAME 6 - OLI
Oli has Box 3.

ROUND 1
6 - £5 | 8 - £50,000 | 17 - £100 | 1 - £75,000 | 4 - £250
OFFER: £2,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
15 - £1,000 | 9 - 10p | 2 - £750
OFFER: £7,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
14 - £10,000 | 19 - £5,000 | 20 - £20,000
OFFER: £13,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
7 - 50p | 12 - £10 | 22 - £15,000 
OFFER: £24,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
11 - £50 | 16 - £1 | 13 - £35,000
OFFER: £54,700 | DEAL

ROUND 6
5 - £500 | 18 - £3,000 | 21 - 1p
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £160,600
Box 3 had £250,000 (Box 10 had £100,000)

Summary stats:
Box had £250,000 | Peak offer £160,600 | Prize won £54,700 | OBW

Summary of game:
The closest I think we'll get to a quarter-millionaire for many weeks to come. I nearly had Oli go on at £54,700, he seemed a gambling type, but I eventually decided that as a young guy who seemed to have his head screwed on the right way round there was no way he could afford to turn down that amount of money. Turned out he should have done. (I'd have had him reject the final offer, incidentally.)

What about that for a finish to the week eh? More coming.

**Posted:** Mon Oct 23, 2006 1:01 pm **Author:** James1978 **Post subject:**

Ooh, I like it! Look forward to you doing Madie and Jennifer's games coming up!

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

Offer settings remain the same for this week.

Code:

GAME 7 - DILYS
Dilys has Box 7.

ROUND 1
16 - £75,000 | 18 - £3,000 | 20 - £50,000 | 8 - 1p | 9 - £10,000
OFFER: £2,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
6 - £50 | 11 - £10 | 12 - £15,000
OFFER: £7,000 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
14 - 10p | 10 - £20,000 | 3 - £250,000
OFFER: £4,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
15 - £1,000 | 22 - £500 | 1 - 50p
OFFER: £8,400 | DEAL

ROUND 5
19 - £5,000 | 21 - £100 | 5 - £250
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £19,600

ROUND 6
2 - £35,000 | 4 - £100,000 | 17 - £750
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £2.72
Box 7 had £5 (Box 13 had £1)

Summary stats:
Box had £5 | Peak offer £19,600 | Prize won £8,400 | TBW (57-43)

Summary of game:
Nearly had her walk at the third offer after the departure of the quarter-million did not result in a complete crash in the offer. Glad she went one more round, shame about the next one but the destruction was on its way eventually. As for that final hypothetical offer, don't ask.

Code:

GAME 8 - PAUL
Paul has Box 19.

ROUND 1
9 - 1p | 3 - £75,000 | 11 - £100 | 21 - £3,000 | 5 - £15,000
OFFER: £2,900 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
16 - £500 | 18 - 50p | 1 - £250
OFFER: £8,700 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
15 - £1,000 | 20 - £10,000 | 7 - £20,000
OFFER: £13,700 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
12 - £250,000 | 2 - £10 | 17 - £50
OFFER: £11,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
4 - £100,000 | 8 - 10p | 10 - £750
OFFER: £13,900 | DEAL

ROUND 6
13 - £1 | 14 - £50,000 | 22 - £5
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £18,400
Box 19 had £35,000 (Box 6 had £5,000)

Summary stats:
Box had £35,000 | Peak offer £18,400 | Prize won £13,900 | OBW

Summary of game:
I had Paul down as a relatively risk-neutral player who'd keep going until an obvious opportunity to go presented itself, as was the case in his game. As in the real game, the fifth offer was that opportunity; despite there being two big boxes and a third red, it felt a big offer for a £50,000 board and one that was in need of taking.

Code:

GAME 9 - SHELL
Shell has Box 20.

ROUND 1
9 - £750 | 21 - £50 | 15 - £500 | 14 - £5 | 5 - £100
OFFER: £3,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
6 - £10 | 10 - £250,000 | 3 - £20,000
OFFER: £5,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
1 - £250 | 13 - £15,000 | 4 - 1p
OFFER: £9,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
16 - £35,000 | 17 - 10p | 8 - £10,000
OFFER: £15,000 | DEAL

ROUND 5
2 - £50,000 | 7 - £1,000 | 12 - £100,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £12,300

ROUND 6
11 - £1 | 18 - 50p | 19 - £3,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £36,700
Box 20 had £5,000 (Box 22 had £75,000)

Summary stats:
Box had £5,000 | Peak offer £36,700 | Prize won £15,000 | TBW (59-41)

Summary of game:
I can't believe that Shell, of all people, had the first ever all-blue opening round in this. The fourth offer caused me an immense headache as it was so different to her real situation, and from her game it was hard to tell how much of a gambler she was with the rubbish offers. Then I remembered she was quite cautious in Dealing the final offer, so I felt she'd want to go. Just as in the real game, she took an offer barely above the FD.

Code:

GAME 10 - NATALIE
Natalie has Box 9.

ROUND 1
16 - £100 | 11 - £50,000 | 12 - £500 | 6 - £15,000 | 4 - 10p
OFFER: £3,000 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
15 - £10,000 | 17 - £5,000 | 21 - 50p
OFFER: £8,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
1 - £250 | 20 - £1,000 | 3 - £100,000
OFFER: £12,700 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
5 - £3,000 | 19 - £20,000 | 13 - £1
OFFER: £21,600 | DEAL

ROUND 5
22 - 1p | 7 - £250,000 | 14 - £5
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £16,700

ROUND 6
18 - £10 | 8 - £35,000 | 10 - £75,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £394
Box 9 had £50 (Box 2 had £750)

Summary stats:
Box had £50 | Peak offer £21,600 | Prize won £21,600 | OPW

Summary of game:
I knew she'd be cautious, I did consider a third-offer Deal, but it turned out she did much the same as in her real game only with a far better proveout. The hypothetical final two was the same as Shell's but two orders of magnitude lower - spooky.

Code:

GAME 11 - MAURICE
Maurice has Box 20.

ROUND 1
1 - £5 | 4 - 1p | 11 - £250 | 14 - £50 | 5 - £100,000
OFFER: £2,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
6 - £35,000 | 3 - £100 | 9 - £250,000
OFFER: £3,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
13 - £10,000 | 17 - £50,000 | 10 - £500
OFFER: £3,700 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
22 - £750 | 2 - 50p | 12 - £1,000
OFFER: £7,000 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
7 - £10 | 21 - £75,000 | 8 - £5,000
OFFER: £5,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 6
19 - £1 | 18 - £15,000 | 16 - 10p
OFFER: £10,900 | DEAL
Box 20 had £20,000 (Box 15 had £3,000)

Summary stats:
Box had £20,000 | Peak offer £10,900 | Prize won £10,900 | OBW

Summary of game:
I feared this would be a disaster when I turned down the fifth offer but I felt Maurice might have still fancied his chances there with two bigger boxes. Turned out that was an inspired move, shame about the ending.

Code:

GAME 12 - LYNDSEY
Lyndsey has Box 15.

ROUND 1
3 - £20,000 | 6 - £10 | 17 - £3,000 | 1 - £500 | 11 - £100,000
OFFER: £2,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
16 - £35,000 | 18 - 1p | 8 - £250,000
OFFER: £2,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
13 - £5 | 12 - £5,000 | 4 - £10,000
OFFER: £4,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
2 - £15,000 | 20 - £100 | 22 - £75,000
OFFER: £3,400 | DEAL

ROUND 5
14 - £50 | 19 - £1,000 | 5 - 50p
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £7,500

ROUND 6
7 - £50,000 | 10 - 10p | 9 - £1
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £496
Box 15 had £750 (Box 21 had £250)

Summary stats:
Box had £750 | Peak offer £7,500 | Prize won £3,400 | TBW (55-45)

Summary of game:
I had Lyndsey down as cautious so as soon as it got to a one-box game, she was out in a flash. She was right to be cautious, but there was another deal in there.

An absolute classic week coming up... not only do we have Jennifer and Voldemort playing, but we've got two other players with very interesting utility curves - Adrienne and Jan. Completing the week, Yorkshire Psychic Jayne and Victoria Beckham wannabe Elaine. Quite a lineup.

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

And here's a sneak preview of that week, with the player who inadvertently coined the term 'safety net', Adrienne.

The fifth offer is now 72% of the mean, not 75%; also, the variance has been increased to 7% from 5%.

Code:

GAME 13 - ADRIENNE
Adrienne has Box 6.

ROUND 1
2 - £35,000 | 8 - £100,000 | 10 - £5 | 19 - 50p | 3 - £1,000
OFFER: £2,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
1 - £750 | 18 - £500 | 4 - £250,000
OFFER: £3,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
5 - £100 | 7 - £250 | 9 - £15,000
OFFER: £4,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
13 - £10,000 | 21 - £5,000 | 11 - £20,000
OFFER: £7,600 | DEAL

ROUND 5
12 - £3,000 | 14 - 10p | 15 - £1
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £18,300

ROUND 6
16 - £10 | 17 - £50,000 | 20 - £75,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £24
Box 6 had 1p (Box 22 had £50)

Summary stats:
Box had 1p | Peak offer £18,300 | Prize won £7,600 | TBW (58-42)

Summary of game:
Another cautious player; I did think that with two big numbers rather than just one she'd be tempted, but I decided she'd be happy with £7,600. Just like her real game, the proveout was looking catastrophic, and then at the very last moment turned around the other way.

**Posted:** Mon Oct 23, 2006 3:38 pm **Author:** James1978 **Post subject:**

Interesting! Most of the early players (with the odd very notable exception!) were rather cautious weren't they, dealing for modest 4-figure sums! Thought maybe that has something to do with the fact that the early offers were rubbish, so the temptation to chase losses wasn't there!

Really enjoying this by the way!

**Posted:** Mon Oct 23, 2006 7:26 pm **Author:** wokoman88 **Post subject:**

i like it too

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

Code:

GAME 14 - HE WHO MUST NOT BE NAMED
He has Box 2.

ROUND 1
1 - £15,000 | 15 - £75,000 | 11 - £100,000 | 16 - £3,000 | 18 - £5
OFFER: £2,100 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
10 - £500 | 14 - £35,000 | 7 - £100
OFFER: £5,700 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
19 - £250,000 | 12 - £50,000 | 3 - £10,000
OFFER: £830 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
22 - £10 | 17 - £1 | 4 - £20,000
OFFER: £427 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
13 - £250 | 5 - £5,000 | 20 - 1p
OFFER: £270 | NO DEAL

ROUND 6
9 - £750 | 6 - 10p | 8 - £50
OFFER: £475 | NO DEAL
Box swap rejected
Box 2 had 50p (Box 21 had £1,000)

Summary stats:
Box had 50p | Peak offer £5,700 | Prize won 50p | OBW

Summary of game:
Well, on a board that bad the reputation of this player was almost totally meaningless. All I can say is that daniel4389 will be ecstatic.

Code:

GAME 15 - JAN
Jan has Box 20.

ROUND 1
2 - 1p | 14 - £10 | 17 - £5 | 19 - £500 | 12 - £1
OFFER: £3,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
3 - £750 | 8 - 10p | 5 - £20,000
OFFER: £9,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
1 - £100,000 | 13 - 50p | 15 - £10,000
OFFER: £14,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
10 - £75,000 | 9 - £5,000 | 4 - £250,000
OFFER: £6,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
21 - £50,000 | 16 - £250 | 11 - £50
OFFER: £7,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 6
18 - £35,000 | 22 - £100 | 7 - £1,000
OFFER: £8,600 | NO DEAL
Box swap rejected
Box 20 had £15,000 (Box 6 had £3,000)

Summary stats:
Box had £15,000 | Peak offer £14,200 | Prize won £15,000 | OPW

Summary of game:
You may recall that Jan had an exit fee in mind, £20,000 for a Brand New Car. After an unbelievable Aaron-esque start, the board started to turn, and in the fourth round it just crumbled. With her eyes still set on the big money even after it had seemingly gone, she produced the most unlikely of OPWs.

Code:

GAME 16 - JAYNE
Jayne has Box 14.

ROUND 1
3 - 50p | 4 - £100 | 19 - £750 | 5 - £1 | 6 - £250,000
OFFER: £1,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
17 - £100,000 | 12 - £10 | 10 - £50
OFFER: £3,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
13 - £75,000 | 7 - 1p | 8 - £15,000
OFFER: £4,000 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
22 - £500 | 20 - £50,000 | 2 - 10p
OFFER: £4,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
16 - £35,000 | 15 - £3,000 | 9 - £1,000
OFFER: £5,100 | NO DEAL

ROUND 6
11 - £10,000 | 18 - £5 | 21 - £250
OFFER: £11,700 | DEAL
Box 14 had £5,000 (Box 1 had £20,000)

Summary stats:
Box had £5,000 | Peak offer £11,700 | Prize won £11,700 | OPW

Summary of game:
The Yorkshire Psychic fittingly gets an OPW after a frankly bizarre game. In the first ten boxes, she took out seven blues and the top three. Incredibly, she removed the Power 5 in reverse order and hit only one other red in that time - leaving just two blues untouched. I nearly had her take the £5,100 but I think that the presence of three reds - and perhaps the influence of gamblers on the wings - may have dragged her on. Judging by that finish I certainly hope so.

Code:

GAME 17 - JENNIFER
Jennifer has Box 9.

ROUND 1
2 - £5,000 | 5 - £750 | 13 - £3,000 | 8 - £1,000 | 1 - £20,000
OFFER: £3,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
17 - £250,000 | 21 - £1 | 10 - £35,000
OFFER: £4,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
15 - £75,000 | 22 - 10p | 14 - £50,000
OFFER: £3,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
11 - £250 | 3 - 50p | 18 - £100,000
OFFER: £1,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
16 - £100 | 12 - £10 | 4 - £10,000
OFFER: £2,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 6
6 - £15,000 | 19 - 1p | 7 - £500
OFFER: £25 | NO DEAL
Box swap rejected
Box 9 had £50 (Box 20 had £5)

Summary stats:
Box had £50 | Peak offer £4,600 | Prize won £50 | OBW

Summary of game:
Quite the contrast with reality. After a bizarre opening (the same as Rachel's first four boxes in her real game, except in a different order) the wheels fell off completely, and though I suspect she'd have seriously considered the fifth offer in that one-box game I get the feeling she'd have been too stubborn to take it - which would have been fatal.

Code:

GAME 18 - ELAINE
Elaine has Box 13.

ROUND 1
6 - 50p | 1 - £50 | 9 - £10,000 | 3 - £100 | 16 - £500
OFFER: £3,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
2 - 10p | 15 - £20,000 | 8 - £250,000
OFFER: £5,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
18 - 1p | 19 - £750 | 10 - £250
OFFER: £8,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
12 - £5 | 22 - £5,000 | 11 - £3,000
OFFER: £16,800 | DEAL

ROUND 5
20 - £100,000 | 7 - £1,000 | 14 - £35,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £19,200

ROUND 6
5 - £75,000 | 17 - £15,000 | 21 - £10
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £24,700
Box 13 had £50,000 (Box 4 had £1)

Summary stats:
Box had £50,000 | Peak offer £24,700 | Prize won £16,800 | OBW

Summary of game:
I had Elaine down as very cautious, so while I personally would certainly have rejected the fourth offer I felt she would have taken it, unable to think beyond what she could do with £16,800. The hypothetical offers, while accurate in percentage-of-the-mean terms, made a mockery of the entire game; sticking twice would have been far more reasonable.

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

Subtle variations in the offer benchmarks, just to keep things interesting while remaining broadly in line with November behaviour: 11%/22%/33%/50%/75%/95%, variance 8%. The return to a 75% benchmark for the final five is because the offers at that point were ridiculously high this week... as you'll see from the player lists.

Code:

GAME 19 - LEIGH
Leigh has Box 1.

ROUND 1
7 - £10,000 | 21 - £10 | 6 - 1p | 19 - £50,000 | 20 - £50
OFFER: £3,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
16 - £250 | 22 - £100 | 17 - £75,000
OFFER: £6,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
10 - £5 | 13 - £35,000 | 8 - £1,000
OFFER: £11,900 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
4 - 10p | 18 - £5,000 | 11 - £750
OFFER: £24,100 | DEAL

ROUND 5
3 - £15,000 | 12 - 50p | 14 - £100,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £41,900

ROUND 6
9 - £250,000 | 2 - £3,000 | 15 - £500
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £10,000

Box 1 had £20,000 (Box 15 had £1)

Summary stats:
Box had £20,000 | Peak offer £41,900 | Prize won £24,100 | TPW (58-42)

Summary of game:
I agonised for ages over whether Leigh would take that offer, as he never had a really difficult decision to make in his game. In the end I felt he'd have been happy with £24,000 - and but for some good old-fashioned hypothetical lies he'd have been a lot happier.

Code:

GAME 20 - LEN
Len has Box 3.

ROUND 1
13 - £250 | 6 - £3,000 | 10 - £10,000 | 5 - £5,000 | 4 - £75,000
OFFER: £3,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
2 - £5 | 16 - £100,000 | 20 - 10p
OFFER: £6,100 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
18 - £250,000 | 17 - £500 | 14 - £100
OFFER: £3,900 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
9 - £750 | 8 - £1 | 12 - £20,000
OFFER: £6,800 | DEAL

ROUND 5
19 - £15,000 | 7 - £35,000 | 11 - £50
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £7,500

ROUND 6
22 - £50,000 | 21 - £10 | 1 - 50p
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £472
Box 3 had 1p (Box 15 had £1,000)

Summary stats:
Box had 1p | Peak offer £7,500 | Prize won £6,800 | TPW (91-9)

Summary of game:
Caution pays dividends as 'coward' Len sells the penny for good money. Had the quarter-million survived another round he would probably have become the first third-offer walker, especially if £50,000 and/or £35,000 went instead.

Code:

GAME 21 - LISA
Lisa has Box 9.

ROUND 1
18 - £5 | 5 - £10 | 10 - £250,000 | 17 - £750 | 7 - £35,000
OFFER: £2,000 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
4 - £100 | 8 - 50p | 11 - £100,000
OFFER: £2,900 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
22 - 10p | 19 - £50 | 14 - £15,000
OFFER: £5,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
1 - £1,000 | 12 - £250 | 6 - £75,000
OFFER: £5,900 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
3 - £5,000 | 2 - £50,000 | 16 - £500
OFFER: £5,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 6
21 - £3,000 | 15 - £1 | 20 - 1p
OFFER: £13,800 | NO DEAL
Box swap rejected
Box 9 had £10,000 (Box 13 had £20,000)

Summary stats:
Box had £10,000 | Peak offer £13,800 | Prize won £10,000 | OBW

Summary of game:
I knew Lisa was a gambler, possibly a reckless one - she turned down £8,100 in effectively Gaz's final eight - and sure enough she goes to the end. In this case, it worked pretty well, the decision to turn down the fifth offer because of the presence of two higher values proving a masterstroke after the perfect round; alas, the final gamble didn't put the icing on the cake.

Code:

GAME 22 - MALLY
Mally has Box 18.

ROUND 1
12 - £50,000 | 6 - 10p | 5 - £50 | 21 - £20,000 | 9 - £1,000
OFFER: £3,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
2 - £1 | 16 - £10,000 | 11 - 50p
OFFER: £7,000 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
14 - £5 | 19 - £250 | 15 - £35,000
OFFER: £14,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
22 - £750 | 8 - £250,000 | 1 - £10
OFFER: £12,900 | DEAL

ROUND 5
7 - £500 | 10 - £100,000 | 20 - £75,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £3,600

ROUND 6
3 - £15,000 | 17 - £3,000 | 13 - £5,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £50
Box 18 had £100 (Box 4 had 1p)

Summary stats:
Box had £100 | Peak offer £14,200 | Prize won £12,900 | TPW (91-9)

Summary of game:
I know Mally won a huge sum of money but I felt he never had a big decision to make all game. From what I could tell, he was really relatively cautious, or at least cautious enough that I felt he'd walk away after the loss of the quarter-million did not lead to a collapse in the offer. Such a move would have been exceptionally smart, it transpired.

Code:

GAME 23 - TREVOR
Trevor has Box 3.

ROUND 1
18 - £5 | 19 - £10,000 | 22 - £1,000 | 5 - £250 | 11 - £20,000
OFFER: £3,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
7 - £100 | 10 - 1p | 6 - £35,000
OFFER: £8,000 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
2 - £5,000 | 4 - £250,000 | 8 - £10
OFFER: £7,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
13 - 50p | 9 - £75,000 | 20 - £1
OFFER: £10,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
15 - £15,000 | 21 - £500 | 16 - £100,000
OFFER: £8,500 | DEAL

ROUND 6
12 - £50 | 17 - £750 | 14 - £50,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £1,400
Box 3 had £3,000 (Box 1 had 10p)

Summary stats:
Box had £3,000 | Peak offer £10,800 | Prize won £8,500 | TPW (79-21)

Summary of game:
Trevor was possibly the sharpest analyst the game has ever seen, and I'm pretty sure that he'd have chased the big money while the safety nets existed and got out pronto at that frankly excessive £8,500 offer in a one-box game rather than chasing after anything bigger.

Code:

GAME 24 - SAM
Sam has Box 10.

ROUND 1
9 - £20,000 | 11 - £3,000 | 21 - £5 | 12 - £10 | 7 - £250
OFFER: £3,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
19 - £35,000 | 14 - £500 | 4 - £100,000
OFFER: £6,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
8 - £1 | 5 - £75,000 | 15 - £10,000
OFFER: £9,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
6 - £50 | 3 - £1,000 | 18 - 10p
OFFER: £19,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
20 - £100 | 13 - £5,000 | 22 - £50,000
OFFER: £38,100 | DEAL

ROUND 6
2 - £750 | 1 - £250,000 | 17 - £15,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: 25p
Box 10 had 1p (Box 16 had 50p)

Summary stats:
Box had 1p | Peak offer £38,100 | Prize won £38,100 | OPW

Summary of game:
The biggest Banker beating you're ever likely to see. Yes, he really did Deal at £38,100 to leave a 1p/50p finish; I had him consider the previous offer but felt he was enough of a gambler to go for it there on a somewhat unstable board... wow. Just wow.

**Posted:** Sat Oct 28, 2006 5:44 pm **Author:** Tugger **Post subject:**

Are you still doing these KP, they were great!

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

New offer benchmarks, as Banker behaviour seemed to be slowly on the turn at this point: 12%/25%/36%/54%/72%/92%, variance 9%.

Code:

GAME 25 - BECKY (has Box 1)

ROUND 1
5 - £35,000 | 13 - £100,000 | 10 - £500 | 3 - £10,000 | 7 - £50,000
BANKER'S OFFER: £2,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
20 - £3,000 | 11 - 50p | 21 - £20,000
BANKER'S OFFER: £6,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
15 - £50 | 9 - £1 | 4 - £250
BANKER'S OFFER: £10,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
17 - 1p | 16 - £100 | 14 - £1,000
BANKER'S OFFER: £24,000 | DEAL

ROUND 5
6 - £75,000 | 2 - £10 | 19 - £250,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £2,700

ROUND 6
22 - £15,000 | 8 - £5,000 | 18 - £750
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £2.37

Box 1 had £5 (Box 12 had 10p) | Peak offer £24,000 | Prize won £24,000 | OPW

Summary: The second incredible proveout in a row, and Becky gets an OPW from taking a sum that could have earned her an OPW in her real show - her peak offer was £24,000 at the third offer, she settled for £20,000 three boxes later.

Code:

GAME 26 | RAJ (has Box 3)

ROUND 1
9 - £100,000 | 8 - £1,000 | 1 - £75,000 | 16 - £5 | 10 - £500
OFFER: £2,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
15 - £20,000 | 17 - 1p | 20 - £1
OFFER: £6,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
11 - £250 | 18 - £10 | 7 - £250,000
OFFER: £3,900 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
21 - 50p | 13 - £50,000 | 14 - £5,000
OFFER: £4,000 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
19 - £3,000 | 6 - £750 | 2 - 10p
OFFER: £9,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 6
12 - £15,000 | 4 - £100 | 22 - £50
OFFER: £19,600 | NO DEAL
Box swap rejected

Box 3 had £10,000 (Box 5 had £35,000) | Peak offer £19,600 | Prize won £10,000 | OBW

Summary: Oof. Going on at the fifth offer with three larger sums proved a great move, and I felt he'd have gone for that final gamble as it came in below £20,000. A tricky one to play, but a good one too.

**Posted:** Tue Oct 31, 2006 12:55 am **Author:** James1978 **Post subject:**

Can't wait to see Andy K

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

Small changes in benchmarks again: 12.5%/25%/37.5%/50%/70%/90%, variance 9.5%. I'm changing these partly because it's fun to do so, to be honest.

Code:

GAME 27 | ANDY K (has Box 22)

ROUND 1
15 - £10,000 | 5 - £100 | 12 - 1p | 14 - £75,000 | 8 - £250
OFFER: £3,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
16 - 10p | 11 - £10 | 17 - £3,000
OFFER: £8,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
6 - £750 | 9 - £50,000 | 21 - £500
OFFER: £15,400 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
1 - £50 | 19 - £20,000 | 10 - £5
OFFER: £23,100 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
7 - £5,000 | 18 - £35,000 | 3 - 50p
OFFER: £53,000 | DEAL

ROUND 6
20 - £1 | 4 - £250,000 | 13 - £15,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £46,500

Box 22 had £100,000 (Box 2 had £1,000) | Peak offer £53,000 | Prize won £53,000 | OBW

Summary: The decision at £53,000 was a nightmare to make... but I eventually opted for Deal thinking that it wasn't dissimilar to his real final five except with higher stakes. Mixed success really, the ending being very much like Jeff's.

Code:

GAME 28 | RITA (has Box 3)

ROUND 1
15 - £500 | 5 - £750 | 20 - £50,000 | 14 - £35,000 | 6 - £100,000
OFFER: £2,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
7 - £10,000 | 1 - £100 | 18 - £50
OFFER: £6,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
2 - 1p | 12 - £15,000 | 21 - £75,000
OFFER: £10,100 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
22 - £3,000 | 4 - 10p | 10 - £20,000
OFFER: £16,800 | DEAL

ROUND 5
11 - £1,000 | 13 - £250,000 | 9 - £5,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £37

ROUND 6
16 - £250 | 17 - 50p | 8 - £10
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £2.50

Box 3 had £1 (Box 19 had £5) | Peak offer £16,800 | Prize won £16,800 | OPW

Summary: While I thought Rita was a gambler, the £20,000 going made the decision all too easy. And what a decision it turned out to be, as not only the top prize but the two low reds go to produce a hysterical post-deal disaster.

**Posted:** Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:05 am **Author:** greeny **Post subject:**

These are really good KP.

**Posted:** Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:33 am **Author:** rico7 **Post subject:**

Interesting alternative game for Oli there. n his actual game he did go all the way to the end but the stakes were no dealing an £8,000 offer to gamble £5,000 against £15,000. He won £5,000, his box amount. I wonder if he would have gone all the way to go for the jackpot? It's possible, but I agreee with you, he probably would have dealt.

**Posted:** Thu Nov 02, 2006 10:38 am **Author:** James1978 **Post subject:**

I would find an offer of £37 with 5 boxes left rather funny!

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

Subtly silly changes in the benchmarks: 13%/26%/39%/52%/68%/89%, variance 9.13%. Yes.

Code:

GAME 29 | JAMES (has Box 2)

ROUND 1
15 - £35,000 | 6 - £20,000 | 11 - 50p | 16 - £1,000 | 5 - £500
BANKER'S OFFER: £3,700 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
21 - £50,000 | 13 - £10,000 | 10 - £5
BANKER'S OFFER: £8,900 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
20 - 1p | 17 - £100,000 | 22 - £10
BANKER'S OFFER: £12,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
4 - £100 | 19 - £3,000 | 12 - 10p
BANKER'S OFFER: £21,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
8 - £250,000 | 14 - £75,000 | 7 - £1
BANKER'S OFFER: £2,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 6
1 - £250 | 18 - £5,000 | 3 - £50
BANKER'S OFFER: £6,700 | NO DEAL
Box swap rejected

Box 2 had £15,000 (Box 9 had £750) | Peak offer £21,200 | Prize won £15,000 | OBW

Summary: It doesn't feel like an OBW when it's a recovery like that. A game I could play in cruise control No Deal mode - though I had the merest hint of thinking even 'giving up the job to play' James might take the final offer. This gamble paid off...

Code:

GAME 30 | JOHN (has Box 10)

ROUND 1
19 - £75,000 | 9 - £1,000 | 4 - £20,000 | 22 - £1 | 12 - £100,000
BANKER'S OFFER: £2,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
13 - £10 | 18 - £3,000 | 16 - 50p
BANKER'S OFFER: £6,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
21 - £500 | 8 - £750 | 1 - £250
BANKER'S OFFER: £13,700 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
14 - £35,000 | 20 - £5 | 5 - £5,000
BANKER'S OFFER: £19,800 | DEAL

ROUND 5
11 - 10p | 6 - £250,000 | 17 - £50,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £3,300

ROUND 6
15 - £15,000 | 3 - £100 | 7 - £50
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £4,100

Box 10 had 1p (Box 2 had £10,000) | Prize won £19,800 | Peak offer £19,800 | OP4W

Summary: I did consider a No Deal there with the top prize and a safety net but felt John would be cautious. Turned out to be one heck of a disaster-prevention strategy!

More games may well be coming up in this thread!

**Posted:** Sat Dec 23, 2006 9:47 pm **Author:** wakey1512 **Post subject:**

KP wrote:

Subtly silly changes in the benchmarks: 13%/26%/39%/52%/68%/89%, variance 9.13%. Yes.

Code:

GAME 29 | JAMES (has Box 2)

ROUND 1
15 - £35,000 | 6 - £20,000 | 11 - 50p | 16 - £1,000 | 5 - £500
BANKER'S OFFER: £3,700 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
21 - £50,000 | 13 - £10,000 | 10 - £5
BANKER'S OFFER: £8,900 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
20 - 1p | 17 - £100,000 | 22 - £10
BANKER'S OFFER: £12,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
4 - £100 | 19 - £3,000 | 12 - 10p
BANKER'S OFFER: £21,200 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
8 - £250,000 | 14 - £75,000 | 7 - £1
BANKER'S OFFER: £2,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 6
1 - £250 | 18 - £5,000 | 3 - £50
BANKER'S OFFER: £6,700 | NO DEAL
Box swap rejected

Box 2 had £15,000 (Box 9 had £750) | Peak offer £21,200 | Prize won £15,000 | OBW

Summary: It doesn't feel like an OBW when it's a recovery like that. A game I could play in cruise control No Deal mode - though I had the merest hint of thinking even 'giving up the job to play' James might take the final offer. This gamble paid off...

Code:

GAME 30 | JOHN (has Box 10)

ROUND 1
19 - £75,000 | 9 - £1,000 | 4 - £20,000 | 22 - £1 | 12 - £100,000
BANKER'S OFFER: £2,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
13 - £10 | 18 - £3,000 | 16 - 50p
BANKER'S OFFER: £6,500 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
21 - £500 | 8 - £750 | 1 - £250
BANKER'S OFFER: £13,700 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
14 - £35,000 | 20 - £5 | 5 - £5,000
BANKER'S OFFER: £19,800 | DEAL

ROUND 5
11 - 10p | 6 - £250,000 | 17 - £50,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £3,300

ROUND 6
15 - £15,000 | 3 - £100 | 7 - £50
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £4,100

Box 10 had 1p (Box 2 had £10,000) | Prize won £19,800 | Peak offer £19,800 | OP4W

Summary: I did consider a No Deal there with the top prize and a safety net but felt John would be cautious. Turned out to be one heck of a disaster-prevention strategy!

More games may well be coming up in this thread!

Gee, OP4W's have to rule!

Yeah, good stuff KP.

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

Just realised the irony that it's from taking OFFER 4! Anyway...

Code:

GAME 31 | HAYLEY (has Box 2)

ROUND 1
1 - 10p | 3 - £5 | 7 - £50 | 15 - £100,000 | 5 - £3,000
BANKER'S OFFER: £3,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
14 - £50,000 | 17 - 1p | 9 - £1
BANKER'S OFFER: £7,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
6 - £750 | 11 - £20,000 | 20 - £10,000
BANKER'S OFFER: £13,300 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
8 - £1,000 | 13 - £75,000 | 19 - £100
BANKER'S OFFER: £20,800 | DEAL

ROUND 5
16 - £5,000 | 10 - £250 | 22 - 50p
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £41,500

ROUND 6
18 - £250,000 | 12 - £500 | 4 - £35,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £6,400

Box 2 had £15,000 (Box 21 had £10) | Peak offer £41,500 | Prize won £20,800 | TPW (50-50)

Summary: Yes, you read that right, a 50-50 TPW. (Pedantically, a 50.1-40.9 TPW.) I felt the board was too unstable for many to go on at that point, and Hayley's approach to risk seemed to be relatively normal. A classic 'one deal too soon' finish really.

Code:

GAME 32 | EDDIE (has Box 10)

ROUND 1
8 - 1p | 18 - £75,000 | 3 - £250,000 | 16 - £10,000 | 12 - £15,000
BANKER'S OFFER: £1,600 | NO DEAL

ROUND 2
1 - £750 | 21 - £250 | 19 - £100
BANKER'S OFFER: £3,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 3
2 - £35,000 | 11 - 50p | 9 - £50
BANKER'S OFFER: £6,800 | NO DEAL

ROUND 4
6 - £50,000 | 20 - £500 | 4 - £1
BANKER'S OFFER: £7,700 | NO DEAL

ROUND 5
7 - £3,000 | 15 - £20,000 | 17 - 10p
BANKER'S OFFER: £14,600 | DEAL

ROUND 6
22 - £1,000 | 14 - £10 | 5 - £100,000
HYPOTHETICAL OFFER: £2,200

Box 10 had £5 (Box 13 had £5,000) | Peak offer £14,600 | Prize won £14,600 | OPW

Summary: Spooky similarity to the real first round - 1p goes, then four reds including the £250,000 and another of the Power 5. In fact this start was even worse... and thanks to a big gamble at the fourth offer paying off, he pulls off the OPW from frankly nowhere. I did have him down as a gambler but one with some sign of common sense, and that proved fruitful here.

**Posted:** Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:37 am **Author:** HorrorLord **Post subject:**

Could you PM me the link to this simulation please because it sounds fantastic!

**Posted:** Sat Jan 13, 2007 11:38 am **Author:** daniel123 **Post subject:**

i think he's using rezzie's game.[rezzie who was actually a member of this site back in may, but seems to have stopped posting.] Theres no link for it, coz it got C&D'd back in well, i cant remember the month but in the summer.

And KP, you forgot in the first post the simulation that i do over on my forum.

anyone feel free to jion the forum in my sig by the way :-D

nice games though mate. keep itup :smt024

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